Progress towards climate change scenarios for the Southwest Pacific
Anticipation of the possible local impacts of climate change and sea level rise on the islands of the southwest Pacific requires far more detailed scenarios than are generally available. This paper summarises what we believe to be significant progress, pointing toward the availability of much more useful information in the near future. The regional performance of global climate models is examined, with particular attention to regional variations in sea level. We also discuss possible changes in ENSO, tropical cyclones, extreme rainfalls and temperature, and progress towards finer spatial resolution. Storm surges and coastal inundation studies are mentioned, along with the need to look beyond the time of doubled CO2.